Nova Fractals

We watched an episode of Nova the other night which was about fractals... it was very cool:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/fractals/program.html

Now here's a thought - humans (and most species) reproduce in a fractal pattern.  Just look at a family tree.  You are already way zoomed in, but it would look about the same if you zoomed way out.

Baseball in the rain

Let's face it... baseball doesn't lend itself to bad weather.  It doesn't take a whole lot of moisture before the whole game is ruined.  

Tampa put it in a dome.  That comes with Astroturf and house rules for what happens when a ball hits the roof (sometimes it is in play?!?).  That is undesirable.  

During the season, you can have double-headers and makeup games to deal with inclemate weather, but that doesn't sit well during the playoffs.  

How about this...  hold the World Series at a neutral, good weather site.  Football does it with the superbowl already.  It is more fair to the teams (there is no longer home-park advantages, such as designs for hitting/pitching or tricky lights to find the ball, home fans, etc.).  It is more fair to the fans, who are less likely to have to rearrange their whole week because it is (surprise) raining in Philadelphia/Boston/New York around Halloween.

Dec MSC, Baseball

World Series:

It was about the 7th inning or so when Ruiz led off with a double and Rollins was HBP.  What a great chance for the Phils to come back with the strength of their lineup coming to the plate.  But wait - the home plate umpire doesn't see Rollins is hit.  Surely hit by pitch would be a simple matter to add to replay review, no?  

Go Phils! 

DEC MSC

A:  IMPS, NONE:  T532, A643, A7, A65

3C (3H) 3NT (4H)

P  (P) ??

4NT.  I expect 9 or 10 tricks on offense.  Opposite certain partners (who might hold Qxxxxxx of clubs and out or K6th) I'd pass, hoping for a set, but North of the MSC is a solid citizen, so I expect 7 clubs, 2 aces and hope for a 10th.   Passing or X'ing is hoping for a slow trick from across the row, but is too much of a gamble at imps.  We aren't likely to beat them more than 1 and we aren't going down more than 1 - and it isn't hard to imagine both sides making.

FWIW, I'd guess RHO is something like 2-5-4-2 and LHO is 5-3-4-1, leaving partner 2-1-3-7.  So if I was to pass, it looks like the best bet for a beat is ace and a diamond.  Better hope partner isn't Jxx, x, QT, KQJxxxx...

B:  IMPS, NONE:  853, AKQ92, 97, A54

(3D) 3H (Pass) 3S

(Pass) 4S (Pass) 5D

(Pass) ??

5H.  Easy for now.  This is a slam drive, so I will continue over a signoff (with 6H, which shows the CA by inference...how can I try for 7 without the ace partner has denied... perhaps I should bid 6H now with this great suit and the CA, but I'm afraid it might be interpreted as choice of contract.  I guess I need more faith in North of the MSC (besides, I want my 100)).

C:  MPs, ALL:  AQJ5, 987643, 9, A9

1D - 1H

2C - ??

2NT.  Easy call.  Invitational values with spades stopped.  

D:  IMPS, NONE:  T8632, K4, A963, K7

1H (1S) ??

X.  Values, a few places to play.  Problem D seems to be missing the followup.  Say it goes (P) 2C... do you bid 2H or 2NT?   Thankfully, I'm saved from it.

E:  IMPS, BOTH:  AK6, AJ542, KT8, Q2

(1C) P (1H) ??

BWS 1NT = NAT

1NT.  I don't see how you can fail to bid 1NT here if you've agreed to play it as natural.

F:  IMPS, NONE: AKJ6, AK42, 7, AQJ3

1C  (Pass) 1S (4H)

??

F1:  Do you agree with 1C.

Yes.  Very much so.

F2: What now?

4S.  A slight underbid, but the HK is partially wasted.  Yes, I can make a grand opposite QT9xxx, x, Axxx, xx... (partner might move with that) but we will be quite high enough opposite more mundane shapes.  If partner has only 4 trumps, they are probably splitting Hawaiin style.

G:  MPS, NONE:  QJ975, AQ93, Q, AQT 

1S - 2D

2H - 3C

??

Abstain.  3NT.  Last.  round.  I could have shown extras without a fit... 2H was MORON CENTRAL.

H:  MPS, FAVORABLE:  KQ86, 98, KQ5, KQ54

(P) P (1NT) AP

??

C4.  Strange but true, as the spade 8 makes it much more likely that a spade lead will blow a trick.  

NFL Personal Fouls

There should be a distinction between fouls made during the course of the play - those that could alter the outcome - and fouls made after the play is over.  

A chop block or a face mask tackle could *alter the current play*

Taunting, late hits, excessive celebration, other "unsportsmanlike conduct"... well, those by definitoin do not alter the play.  They are not FOOTBALL violations, they are SOCIAL violations.

As social violations, they should have social penalties.  I propose that any "15 yard" variety of penalty that occurs outside of the normal play be dealt with by the equivalent of hockey's game misconduct.  The player is ejected and the matter is refered to the league.  I would also suggest that in football, such a penalty occuring in the 4th quarter also result in ejection from the first half of the next game (and in hockey, such a penalty in the 3rd period result in ejection from the 1st period of the next game).

Not only would this mean that a late hit doesn't give a team some ridiculous first down and swing the whole game, but it would mean you'd see far fewer of the violations.  After all, it is easy to justify 15 yards on a kickoff play... but could your team really win without you?  Most egos won't allow it.

MSC continued

Well, the Nov issue arrived today, so I better finish these before I read it.  These problems are much harder than last month.

D: MP, Fav

9743, T, AT8, QT954

(P) - 1H - (2D) - ??

Pass, and pass partner's double.  I'd double at imps - and that would be easy.  Of course, I usually play flannery, where double would be much more likely to land in a poor contract (if playing Flannery, I would correct 2S to 3C after X).

E:  IMPS, UNF

--, A8643, A5, JT8642

Pass (2S)  Pass (3S)

X.  Ehh, no big deal, this seems to cover the most cases.

F:  IMPS, Both

KQ652, J, 7643, A62

1H - 1S

2C - ??

3C.  Another problem that would be made easier by flannery, since partner would always raise spades with 3-5-1-4 shape.  10 HCP is too much to pass.  2H shows neither this strength or distrubution.  2S is madness.  2NT is antipositional.  3C is most likely to survive.  Might pass at MPs

G:  MPs, None:

A3, QT, QT765, Q632

(Pass)  Pass (Pass) 1H

(1S)  DBL (2H)  3D 

(Pass) ???

3S.  I'm up for however partner wants to proceed.

H:  Both, IMPS

A742, AT3, AQJ, JT7

(1C) X (1S) 2H 

(3NT) AP

DA. RHO has long clubs.  Could hold  HKQx.  Definately start with an ace, the DA could strike gold. 

November 2008 MSC

A: IMPS, NONE, 543, A8654, --, KJ753

(1D) 2C (Pass)  ??

[note 2H = nf, 3D mixed raise]

4D.  From the note, we may assume that 2D wouldn't even so much as show the fit.  We aren't told about 3H, which I assume is not fit-showing,  so why not splinter?  We have a massive club fit, so I'm not so worried about the extra 20 points for 4H and 4D is best for slam purposes.

B:  MP, None: AK, AT8643, AQT64, --

1S - 2H

3C* - 3D   * = extras

3NT - 4D

5D - 5S

5NT - ??

7S.  Avoids the blockage problems that will hamper 6 or 7D.  QJxxx, --, Kxx, AKxxx isn't even extra values and that has 13 tricks most of the time.

C:  IMPS, NONE;  A, J4, KQJ873, KQ84

1D (1S) P (P)

??

2C.  Is this a trick question?

Will do more later...

Stocks and making and losing money

I'm sick of hearing about pundits talk about how X dollars was lost in the market.  After the first bailout package failed that figure was $1.2 T.  What those people either don't understand or aren't telling you is that it is all ZERO SUM.  If you buy a stock at $100 and it falls to $90, you have lost $10.  However, the person who sold it to you has made $10 (without using technical terms, you can think of it like this: they can buy pack the same stock they sold for $10 less, and be in the same position they were, only with $10 more).

With mortgages that default.  Say I buy a house for $500K on one of those funky upside down loans.  I then lose my job (for those than know me, this came pretty close to being true).  I can no longer afford my mortgage, so I default.  Over the same period, the home is now only worth $400K.  The bank can forclose, but they have an assett worth $100K less than they sold it for.  Did that money evaporate?  NO NO NO.  That money wound up in the hands of the person I bought the house from.

Yes, people are losing their shirts.  But they are just one of the many subgroups of scoundrels.  Most of those people have made out quite well.  

Ech.

Baseball

I wonder... how much of home-field advantage can be attributed to the very tangible benifit of batting second.  It would be very interesting to see a season of baseball where the home team bats first.  I bet home teams would lose more games than they would win.

Palin and Biden on Supreme Court

this video shows Biden and Palin responding to the same questions from Couric.  Biden answers thoughtfully and completely.  Palin *DUCK*!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBt0r9Exv2I&feature=related

Michael Moore on the bailout

Has some decent ideas and some dumb ones.

http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?id=237

I agree... I wouldn't trust this administration to walk a dog, let alone manage that kind of money.  

But Mike, not all stocks pay dividends - and if you tax them any more (let alone 100%), they just won't issue them.