Fan interference

I don't understand why MLB tolerates fan interference when it would be trivial to completely eradicate it.  Here is my plan.

The lowest 5 level of seats are reserved for season ticket holders only (this is probably already true).  If a fan interferes with a ball in play, the following happens:

1) they are ejected

2) they lose their tickets for the remainder of the season without refund

3) they lose the rights to those seats.

If you sold your ticket to someone else and they or a guest interferes; tough luck.  It is the responsibility of the seatholder to ensure the integrity of the game.  

The nice thing about these rules is that they would probably never be enforced.  No one would ever risk interfering with a ball.  Anyone who sells their ticket to such a seat would have to include a damages clause.

Football Overtime and CBS sunday scheduling

Since it seems impossible to arrive at a fair overtime situation in football that doesn't involve playing an entire quarter, why not allow regular season games which are tied at the end of regulation be scored as a tie?  That would generate a great deal more interesting playoff scenarios and end of game decisions.  Now in the playoffs, just play an extra quarter.

On a tangentially related note, I was disappointed that tonights CBS late game, Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore failed to go into overtime.  You see, CBS airs 60 minutes at the end of the game and all the rest of their sunday programming after that.  Well tonight, the season finale of Survivor was on CBS, and I bet there were a lot of people out there who record it who don't watch football and don't know to record the two hours after the program just to make sure they get it all (Amazing race fans have learned this lesson the hard way already).  An overtime would have made it so that even if you were recording the hour of reuinion show after Survivor you wouldn't have got the winner.  

CBS would have gotten many, many well deserved complaints and just maybe instituted a meaningful change.  I suggest airing 60 minutes in progress, then re-airing it after the regular sunday programming concludes.

Michael

Finger Foods

The pediatrician recommended starting Sammie on solid finger foods.  Specifically cheerios and Gerber Puffs.  I have a policy about trying whatever the baby gets, so I toss a cheerio in my mouth and try to eat it without using my teeth.  It takes a while to soften up, but then disolves to a swalloable paste.  Now I had no idea what a puff was, but I was imagining it to be something akin to a cheeto - light and airy, instantly disolving to nothing when eaten.

No.  Puffs are sort of like flavored cereal.  They take slightly less time to dissolve than a cheerio, but they are still pretty solid pieces of food.  We've fed her both.  The cheerios have caused a few spit ups already - especially if she gets more than one in her mouth.  

Yesterday, I bought one of my favorite snack foods, the all natural white cheddar cheetos.  Light, airy puffs of wholesome fat.  YUMMY!  It occured to me that this was something Sammie could really get into.  So I took a couple of cheetos and sliced them thin using a very sharp knife (courtesy of Barry Maurer).  Each cheeto makes about 10 pieces.  

They were a HUGE hit.  Even babies know a good snack when they get one.  So what would you want - a cheerio that takes 2 minutes to chew, or a cheeto?

Jan 09 MSC Problems

A:  Imps, Fav.  QT64, AQ853, K6, 84

1D (2S) ??

DBL.  It is too clever to try to stop short of game, so I will try to reach the best one.  I'll show modest hearts via the double and then a spades stopped with 3NT.  If partner insists on hearts, then he will be correct.

B:  MPs, ALL.  --, T64, QJT2, AQ9642

(P) P? (1C) P

(1S) P? (2S) P

(P) ??

3C.  I'd've bid minimal clubs both of the previous rounds and I bet there will be more than a couple of complaints from the panel.  Too dangerous to double here, as partner will be passing inappropriately.  I hope to push them up to the three level or more.  2NT is possible, but I don't think that shows more than 4 clubs catering to partner's potential length. (in general, if anyone is to show up with long clubs here, it would more likely be partner than the player behind the 1C bidder who failed to overcall).  

C:  IMPS, UNFAV.  J93, JT, KJ642, AT3

1H - 1NT;

2C - ??

2NT.  Isn't this a prototypical 2NT call... 10 HCPs, good pushers, lots of trick potential?

D:  MPS, NONE:  7643, A5, AK7, AKQ9

(1S) ??

DBL.  Then 3C over 2H.  With some partners I use power doubles, which would solve this problem nicely.

E:  IMPs, NONE.  AJ, 2, AQ9642, Q843

(3H) P (P) 4D

(P) 4H (P) ?

4S.  I don't see an alternative answer, although I guess the panel will come up with one.

F:  IMPS, ALL:  --, AKJ3, AT8532, K54

1D - 1S

??

2H.  A survey problem:  what is the min. to reverse?  I can't see bidding 2C, leaving these hearts unbid.  Partner doesn't have to have a disaster hand.

G:  IMPS, FAV.   J4, J9765, AK653, 6

P (1C) ??

2NT.  I'm in there with this type of hand.  Might find a good save.  Might disrupt their auction.  Against that, we might draw a roadmap in the play or go for a number.  My experience is that the odds favor bidding with the right shape.  And not by just a little.  In some partnerships, we use roman jump overcalls, so 3D would show this handtype, which would blow them out even more.

H:  MPS, BOTH,   J72, K62, JT8, Q942

(1NT) - (3NT)

DJ.  Safe.  I try not to blow a trick at the form of scoring.  Nowadays, more and more people blast 3NT with good majors on the theory that opening leader goes out of their way to lead one.  A spade lead is most likely to blow a trick (at imps, the SJ might be a good shot).  A heart lead is probably safe, a club isn't.

Over 8 hands, I held 18 spades and 34 diamonds.  I suspect that the way bidding systems are set up, you are more likely to encounter difficult problem with minor oriented hands than major hands. 

Kantar for the Defense

The Dec 2008 Kantar for the defense gives this:

Dummy:

T932

QJ92

T9

754

                   East:

                   A64

                    765

                   83

                   98632

2C - 2D

2N - 3C

3D - 3NT

Opening lead:  4th? S7, 2, A, ??  (really he needs to tell you declarer plays the 5; it makes a huge difference).

The official solution is to shift to a club.  It is explained that if partner has S KJ87, he will work out to drop declarer's SQ and you need to set up a trick.  All well and good.  

But then it goes on to say that if declarer is off the CA but has the SK... i.e.

K5, AKx, AQJxx, KQJ

That partner can win the CA and continue a low spade to still beat the hand.

NOT SO FAST.  Declarer wins the SK, Cashes the club QJ and partner outshows on the 3rd round.  Now declarer is 100% to make by cashing four hearts and exiting a spade. 

A club shift might be best, but it won't work in as may cases as Kantar claims.

After a takeout double - pet peeve

The Nov 2008 Bulletin aricle "claim with Colchamiro" (page 48) gives some pretty poor advice for intermediate players.

I quote

 "...after partner's 1S opening bid and a takout double, you would bid 2C with :

83, K7, 864, QJT643.  

The reason you can make a 2/1 bid is that a redouble shows 10 or more HCP and usually no great fit for partner's suit.  With a long suit (that can't be bid at the one level) and 10 or more points, redouble first, and then bid your suit (forcing one round) at your second turn."

OK.  There are some problems with this more or less standard approach approach.  The first is that your redouble turns on preemptive jumps for the opponents.  Here are the auctions we are comparing:

1S (DBL) RDBL

1S (DBL) 2C

Let's change the example hand a little, so it falls under that 10 or more HCP category.  Let's make it:  Kx, Ax, xxx, AKxxxx.  Come to think of it, this approach would require a redouble with: Qx, x, AT9, KJT9xxx.

How would you like this auction:

1S (DBL) RDBL (3H)

Pass/DBL (Pass) ??

Could your really stand your partner's double with the second hand.  If you pull to 4C, is that forcing?  Can't partner have either of these hands: AKJxx, Qxxx, x, Axx OR  AKxxx, QJTx, Jxx, x?  Why put yourself through this agony?

Even if it is 2H passed back to you the auction will be no bargain, effectively starting at the 3-level instead of the 2-level with both level and strain very much in doubt. 

What if the hand is complex with support...

KQx, x, Kxx, AJ9xxx

A better approach is to have your new suits at the 2-level show shape and be forcing through 3 of that suit.  You can send forcing messages by bidding 2 suits or cuebidding and partner can now rely on your redoubles to show a more balanced pattern (which may help your penalty doubles).

Here is a hand that is slammish opposite club support, but worth game only opposite none.  If you start with a redouble, you are getting none of your message across and will have to start your exploration at the 3 or 4 level.  If you start with 2C, you will find out about club support immediately.

What would be the downside to having your new suits at the 2-level being forcing through 3m?  Can you no longer bid 2C with the example hand... xx, Kx, xxx, QJTxxx.  I don't see why not.  You will be forced to compete to 3C, but that is very likely correct anyway once the opponents bid 2H.  

I've never taken a trick with a high card point.  You take tricks with cards.  Distribution is king and it is much more important to get that message off your chest in a competitive auction.  If you slow down with complex hands, you risk getting blown out.

Nova Fractals

We watched an episode of Nova the other night which was about fractals... it was very cool:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/fractals/program.html

Now here's a thought - humans (and most species) reproduce in a fractal pattern.  Just look at a family tree.  You are already way zoomed in, but it would look about the same if you zoomed way out.

Baseball in the rain

Let's face it... baseball doesn't lend itself to bad weather.  It doesn't take a whole lot of moisture before the whole game is ruined.  

Tampa put it in a dome.  That comes with Astroturf and house rules for what happens when a ball hits the roof (sometimes it is in play?!?).  That is undesirable.  

During the season, you can have double-headers and makeup games to deal with inclemate weather, but that doesn't sit well during the playoffs.  

How about this...  hold the World Series at a neutral, good weather site.  Football does it with the superbowl already.  It is more fair to the teams (there is no longer home-park advantages, such as designs for hitting/pitching or tricky lights to find the ball, home fans, etc.).  It is more fair to the fans, who are less likely to have to rearrange their whole week because it is (surprise) raining in Philadelphia/Boston/New York around Halloween.

Dec MSC, Baseball

World Series:

It was about the 7th inning or so when Ruiz led off with a double and Rollins was HBP.  What a great chance for the Phils to come back with the strength of their lineup coming to the plate.  But wait - the home plate umpire doesn't see Rollins is hit.  Surely hit by pitch would be a simple matter to add to replay review, no?  

Go Phils! 

DEC MSC

A:  IMPS, NONE:  T532, A643, A7, A65

3C (3H) 3NT (4H)

P  (P) ??

4NT.  I expect 9 or 10 tricks on offense.  Opposite certain partners (who might hold Qxxxxxx of clubs and out or K6th) I'd pass, hoping for a set, but North of the MSC is a solid citizen, so I expect 7 clubs, 2 aces and hope for a 10th.   Passing or X'ing is hoping for a slow trick from across the row, but is too much of a gamble at imps.  We aren't likely to beat them more than 1 and we aren't going down more than 1 - and it isn't hard to imagine both sides making.

FWIW, I'd guess RHO is something like 2-5-4-2 and LHO is 5-3-4-1, leaving partner 2-1-3-7.  So if I was to pass, it looks like the best bet for a beat is ace and a diamond.  Better hope partner isn't Jxx, x, QT, KQJxxxx...

B:  IMPS, NONE:  853, AKQ92, 97, A54

(3D) 3H (Pass) 3S

(Pass) 4S (Pass) 5D

(Pass) ??

5H.  Easy for now.  This is a slam drive, so I will continue over a signoff (with 6H, which shows the CA by inference...how can I try for 7 without the ace partner has denied... perhaps I should bid 6H now with this great suit and the CA, but I'm afraid it might be interpreted as choice of contract.  I guess I need more faith in North of the MSC (besides, I want my 100)).

C:  MPs, ALL:  AQJ5, 987643, 9, A9

1D - 1H

2C - ??

2NT.  Easy call.  Invitational values with spades stopped.  

D:  IMPS, NONE:  T8632, K4, A963, K7

1H (1S) ??

X.  Values, a few places to play.  Problem D seems to be missing the followup.  Say it goes (P) 2C... do you bid 2H or 2NT?   Thankfully, I'm saved from it.

E:  IMPS, BOTH:  AK6, AJ542, KT8, Q2

(1C) P (1H) ??

BWS 1NT = NAT

1NT.  I don't see how you can fail to bid 1NT here if you've agreed to play it as natural.

F:  IMPS, NONE: AKJ6, AK42, 7, AQJ3

1C  (Pass) 1S (4H)

??

F1:  Do you agree with 1C.

Yes.  Very much so.

F2: What now?

4S.  A slight underbid, but the HK is partially wasted.  Yes, I can make a grand opposite QT9xxx, x, Axxx, xx... (partner might move with that) but we will be quite high enough opposite more mundane shapes.  If partner has only 4 trumps, they are probably splitting Hawaiin style.

G:  MPS, NONE:  QJ975, AQ93, Q, AQT 

1S - 2D

2H - 3C

??

Abstain.  3NT.  Last.  round.  I could have shown extras without a fit... 2H was MORON CENTRAL.

H:  MPS, FAVORABLE:  KQ86, 98, KQ5, KQ54

(P) P (1NT) AP

??

C4.  Strange but true, as the spade 8 makes it much more likely that a spade lead will blow a trick.  

NFL Personal Fouls

There should be a distinction between fouls made during the course of the play - those that could alter the outcome - and fouls made after the play is over.  

A chop block or a face mask tackle could *alter the current play*

Taunting, late hits, excessive celebration, other "unsportsmanlike conduct"... well, those by definitoin do not alter the play.  They are not FOOTBALL violations, they are SOCIAL violations.

As social violations, they should have social penalties.  I propose that any "15 yard" variety of penalty that occurs outside of the normal play be dealt with by the equivalent of hockey's game misconduct.  The player is ejected and the matter is refered to the league.  I would also suggest that in football, such a penalty occuring in the 4th quarter also result in ejection from the first half of the next game (and in hockey, such a penalty in the 3rd period result in ejection from the 1st period of the next game).

Not only would this mean that a late hit doesn't give a team some ridiculous first down and swing the whole game, but it would mean you'd see far fewer of the violations.  After all, it is easy to justify 15 yards on a kickoff play... but could your team really win without you?  Most egos won't allow it.

MSC continued

Well, the Nov issue arrived today, so I better finish these before I read it.  These problems are much harder than last month.

D: MP, Fav

9743, T, AT8, QT954

(P) - 1H - (2D) - ??

Pass, and pass partner's double.  I'd double at imps - and that would be easy.  Of course, I usually play flannery, where double would be much more likely to land in a poor contract (if playing Flannery, I would correct 2S to 3C after X).

E:  IMPS, UNF

--, A8643, A5, JT8642

Pass (2S)  Pass (3S)

X.  Ehh, no big deal, this seems to cover the most cases.

F:  IMPS, Both

KQ652, J, 7643, A62

1H - 1S

2C - ??

3C.  Another problem that would be made easier by flannery, since partner would always raise spades with 3-5-1-4 shape.  10 HCP is too much to pass.  2H shows neither this strength or distrubution.  2S is madness.  2NT is antipositional.  3C is most likely to survive.  Might pass at MPs

G:  MPs, None:

A3, QT, QT765, Q632

(Pass)  Pass (Pass) 1H

(1S)  DBL (2H)  3D 

(Pass) ???

3S.  I'm up for however partner wants to proceed.

H:  Both, IMPS

A742, AT3, AQJ, JT7

(1C) X (1S) 2H 

(3NT) AP

DA. RHO has long clubs.  Could hold  HKQx.  Definately start with an ace, the DA could strike gold. 

November 2008 MSC

A: IMPS, NONE, 543, A8654, --, KJ753

(1D) 2C (Pass)  ??

[note 2H = nf, 3D mixed raise]

4D.  From the note, we may assume that 2D wouldn't even so much as show the fit.  We aren't told about 3H, which I assume is not fit-showing,  so why not splinter?  We have a massive club fit, so I'm not so worried about the extra 20 points for 4H and 4D is best for slam purposes.

B:  MP, None: AK, AT8643, AQT64, --

1S - 2H

3C* - 3D   * = extras

3NT - 4D

5D - 5S

5NT - ??

7S.  Avoids the blockage problems that will hamper 6 or 7D.  QJxxx, --, Kxx, AKxxx isn't even extra values and that has 13 tricks most of the time.

C:  IMPS, NONE;  A, J4, KQJ873, KQ84

1D (1S) P (P)

??

2C.  Is this a trick question?

Will do more later...

Stocks and making and losing money

I'm sick of hearing about pundits talk about how X dollars was lost in the market.  After the first bailout package failed that figure was $1.2 T.  What those people either don't understand or aren't telling you is that it is all ZERO SUM.  If you buy a stock at $100 and it falls to $90, you have lost $10.  However, the person who sold it to you has made $10 (without using technical terms, you can think of it like this: they can buy pack the same stock they sold for $10 less, and be in the same position they were, only with $10 more).

With mortgages that default.  Say I buy a house for $500K on one of those funky upside down loans.  I then lose my job (for those than know me, this came pretty close to being true).  I can no longer afford my mortgage, so I default.  Over the same period, the home is now only worth $400K.  The bank can forclose, but they have an assett worth $100K less than they sold it for.  Did that money evaporate?  NO NO NO.  That money wound up in the hands of the person I bought the house from.

Yes, people are losing their shirts.  But they are just one of the many subgroups of scoundrels.  Most of those people have made out quite well.  

Ech.

Baseball

I wonder... how much of home-field advantage can be attributed to the very tangible benifit of batting second.  It would be very interesting to see a season of baseball where the home team bats first.  I bet home teams would lose more games than they would win.

Palin and Biden on Supreme Court

this video shows Biden and Palin responding to the same questions from Couric.  Biden answers thoughtfully and completely.  Palin *DUCK*!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBt0r9Exv2I&feature=related

Michael Moore on the bailout

Has some decent ideas and some dumb ones.

http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?id=237

I agree... I wouldn't trust this administration to walk a dog, let alone manage that kind of money.  

But Mike, not all stocks pay dividends - and if you tax them any more (let alone 100%), they just won't issue them.  

Kucinich on the bailout

HRYK!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaF_MZVWM3E

Outsourcing

The primary driver for the wrecked economy is outsourcing.  A steady drop in US manufacturing jobs has led to massive unemployment and a recentering of the economy around the service center.

If the economy is to be fixed, we need good jobs at home.  That means punishing companies who send jobs overseas.  I'd like to see a law passed that says that any outsourced job must be payed industry median for that position.  If you think the most qualified tech support person you can find is in India, then fine, but you gotta pay them what you'd pay a U.S. employee - $45K.  

Greedy greedy bastards those big companies.

If you want a McJob, vote for McCain.

Bailout

I hate the idea of a bailout for big financial companies.  These companies were well aware of the risks associated with their investments - assessing risk is an integral part of investing.   What if I go to Atlantic City and play a game where I have a 7% edge (without going into how I can accomplish this, which is information I'm not willing to share, it is sufficient here to say that it is possible) and I manage to lose $10K?  I wouldn't expect a government bailout.  

Put another way, if there was no risk in an investment for some people, shouldn't all people be granted that no risk?  We'd've certainly bought a house beyond our means (we were approved for a loan twice as large as the one we took, which is barely affordable).  

People need to take responsibility for their financial decisions.

To put in perspective how much $700 Billion dollars is, you could use that money to provide safe drinking water for every man, woman and child on this earth (a huge problem in underdeveloped nations).  And still have enough money left over to fund the immoral war in Iraq for 20 months.

Another sectional swiss

A few problems (all imps):

NV, 4th seat

ATx, AKJxxx, xxx, K

P - P - P - 1H

P - 2H - 2S - ??

Unfavorable:

P - P - 1D - X

3D - 4S - 5D - ??

Is your auction a force?

A98, JT9, Qxx, KQxx, favorable 4th seat

P - 1C - 1S - 2S

P - 3C - P - ??

Problem 1, I had been planning on making a game try of 2S if RHO had passed.  3D is not really the right game try, as partner will think honor 3rd is good, when it really isn't.  3C is worse for evaluation.  Maybe I should try 2NT - if partner raises, 3NT is probably right.  In reality, I bid 3H, hoping no game was on, since NV.  I caught a total max and favorable breaks: J9, xxx, AKx, Jxxxx, so 3NT and 4H are both trivial makes.

Problem 2, I assumed we weren't in a forcing pass auction and passed with QTx, AKxxxx, x, xxx (by the way, it wasn't really a double, but a 1NT overcall for limited takeout, but for those unfamiliar with the methods, it simplifies the discussion to call it a double.  The reason I bid 1NT rather than 1H with the hand is that 2H would show 4-5 in the majors and I felt that 1NT might bury the opponents 44 spade fit effectively.  I didn't count on partner bidding the 5-level by himself with KJxxx, Qx, x, QJxxx.  I mentioned after the hand that when you and partner are both short in the same suit, the hand doesn't play so well.  Mercifully undoubled for -300, but a phantom save.

Partner also saved in 5D holding Jxxxx, Ax, Qxxxx, J on this auction:  

(1C) 1D (1H) 1S

(2H) P  (4H) ??

Also a phantom save; after a club lead, you can win the HA, cross in diamonds and get a ruff.  You can't take phantoms at imps.

Hand 3 I passed - right, no game makes as the overcaller had SKQJ and an outside ace.

Michael